The Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) has proposed a scenario of future electricity demand that includes growing hydrogen usage. Domestic consumption will be for replacing natural gas consumption, fueling heavy vehicles such as trucks and trains, and generating grid electricity during peak demand. Also under this scenario, a strong, emerging export economy is assumed to start from 2030.
Nationally, 5 million tonnes of hydrogen could be produced from grid connected electricity by 2035, increasing to over 20Mt by 2050. In Tasmania, domestic consumption (diesel and natural gas replacement) could approach 100,000t by 2040. Even with improvements to hydrogen production efficiency, producing that much hydrogen could consume at least 40% of Tasmania’s total current electricity generation, before exporting any hydrogen out of the state is considered. Much more electricity production will be required to generate the hydrogen demanded in other states.
Modelling scenarios of future energy usage and technology improvements to identify the priorities for augmenting the national electricity grid now, as generation rapidly transitions from massive retiring coal-fired power stations to diverse wind and solar variable generation, is an incredibly complex process. Data and modelling from multiple experts working on all aspects of current and proposed projects is required. Significant network augmentation projects that may go ahead such as VNI West (2028), Post VNI West (2031), CNSW-SNSW Options (2029) and Marinus Link (2027 – 2029), will take years of design, planning, assessment and applications to ensure the best credible network options progress.
Public submissions for AEMO’s 2020-21 Planning and Forecasting Consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios, addressing the questions outlined in the document and on any other matter related to the inputs, assumptions and scenarios, are required to be submitted by Monday 1 February 2021. You can find out more information here:
